diff --git a/.gitignore b/.gitignore index 2fc83b4..7972f2d 100644 --- a/.gitignore +++ b/.gitignore @@ -1,6 +1,7 @@ # ── Hugo ── .hugo_build.lock hugo_stats.json +hugo/eliaskohout.de/public/ # ── macOS ── .DS_Store diff --git a/hugo/eliaskohout.de/assets/css/style.css b/hugo/eliaskohout.de/assets/css/style.css index c987e58..7a06cd6 100644 --- a/hugo/eliaskohout.de/assets/css/style.css +++ b/hugo/eliaskohout.de/assets/css/style.css @@ -118,6 +118,62 @@ svg { gap: 1.5rem; } +.coming-soon { + grid-column: 1 / -1; + text-align: center; + padding: 3rem 2rem; + border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.08); + border-radius: 12px; + background: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.03); + -webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(12px); + backdrop-filter: blur(12px); + animation: fadeInUp 0.6s ease-out; +} + +.coming-soon-icon { + display: block; + font-size: 2.5rem; + margin-bottom: 1rem; + animation: float 3s ease-in-out infinite; +} + +.coming-soon h2 { + font-size: 1.4rem; + letter-spacing: 2px; + margin: 0 0 0.5rem; + color: #fff; +} + +.coming-soon p { + color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.5); + font-size: 0.95rem; + margin: 0 0 1rem; +} + +.coming-soon-dots span { + display: inline-block; + font-size: 1.5rem; + color: #ff3c3c; + animation: blink 1.4s infinite both; +} +.coming-soon-dots span:nth-child(2) { animation-delay: 0.2s; } +.coming-soon-dots span:nth-child(3) { animation-delay: 0.4s; } + +@keyframes fadeInUp { + from { opacity: 0; transform: translateY(16px); } + to { opacity: 1; transform: translateY(0); } +} + +@keyframes float { + 0%, 100% { transform: translateY(0); } + 50% { transform: translateY(-8px); } +} + +@keyframes blink { + 0%, 80%, 100% { opacity: 0; } + 40% { opacity: 1; } +} + .project-card { display: block; border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1); diff --git a/hugo/eliaskohout.de/content/projects/gebrauchtwagen-datenbank.md b/hugo/eliaskohout.de/content/projects/gebrauchtwagen-datenbank.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..85e8d20 --- /dev/null +++ b/hugo/eliaskohout.de/content/projects/gebrauchtwagen-datenbank.md @@ -0,0 +1,159 @@ +--- +title: "2 Million Used Cars and What They Tell Us" +draft: true +date: 2026-02-12 +tags: ["Scraping", "Data Engineering", "Grafana", "PostgreSQL"] +summary: "Scraping ~2M used car listings, throwing them into a database, and seeing what shakes out." +code: "" +demo: "" +--- + +## The Question + +Everyone's heard the legend: a VW Passat that just keeps going at 400,000 km. But is it actually the only car that pulls that off? What other models quietly rack up absurd mileage — and what do they cost? In short: what makes a car *last*, and can you get one without overpaying? + +Time to find out with data instead of hearsay. + +## The Approach + +A major used car platform turned out to be surprisingly cooperative when it came to structured data. Their recommendation engine helpfully links to similar listings — so starting from a search, you can just keep crawling through related results. + +The haul: roughly **2 million listings** from early 2026, downloaded as JSON and +loaded into a PostgreSQL database. At that point, the recommendation graph +stopped surfacing new entries — a second pass would likely uncover more, since +new listings appear daily. But 2M felt like a solid starting point. + +## The Data + +**2,046,879 listings**, most of them containing the following fields (among others): + +`make` · `model` · `model_variant` · `fuel` · `price` · `mileage` · `power_kw` · +`transmission_type` · `number_of_cylinders` · `body_type` · `body_color` · +`first_registration_date` · `number_of_previous_owners` · `is_roadworthy` · +`is_currently_damaged` · `usage_state` · `type` · `zip_code` · `country_code` · +`city` + +That's enough to get interesting. + +About 119,500 listings were missing either price or mileage — not entirely clear +why, but with nearly 2 million records left, it's barely a dent. + +--- + +## Findings + +### Price vs. Mileage + +The obvious place to start: how does price relate to mileage? + + +{{< grafana url="https://gr.eliaskohout.de/public-dashboards/0852019305114cd189aedb67dea27721" height="450" >}} + +Two hot spots jump out immediately. One in the low-mileage/high-price corner, +one in the high-mileage/low-price corner — exactly what you'd expect. Expensive +special cars that barely leave the garage, and daily drivers with six-figure +odometers priced to move. + +The vast majority of listings, though, cluster in relatively low-price and +low-mileage territory compared to the extremes. + +**A note on clipping.** The plot caps at €1,000,000 and 1,000,000 km because the +*tails get absurd. The highest listed price was €999,999,999 — obviously not +*real. Six listings exceeded €10 million, none of them serious. A handful +*between €1M and €10M could be genuine exotics. On the mileage side, the maximum +*was 100,000,000 km. The highest plausible reading I found was an Iveco truck at +*897,000 km on the odometer. The roughly 570 listings beyond that appeared to be +*typos or placeholder values for "mileage unknown." + +Across the cleaned dataset, averages land at roughly **€28,400** for price and +**75,600 km** for mileage. The standard deviations are enormous — €731k and 109k +km respectively — which tells you just how wide the spread really is. + +That gives an overall average ratio of about **€375 per 1,000 km**. In other +words: for each 1,000 km on the odometer, the average listing costs about €375. +This isn't a depreciation rate in the strict sense — we're looking at a +cross-sectional snapshot of listed prices, not tracking individual cars losing +value over time. But it turns out to be a useful back-of-the-napkin metric for +comparing brands. + +### By Brand + +The dataset contains **346 distinct makes**. Of those, 72 (~21%) have more than +500 listings — enough for halfway meaningful statistics. The rest are too sparse +to generalize from, so brand-level analysis focuses on these 72. + +{{/* dashboard on price per mileage; table with make and euro/km; ordered by price per mileage */}} +{{< grafana url="https://gr.eliaskohout.de/public-dashboards/1777bb018e9b47639b93ef31d97f9c89" height="450" >}} + +The ranking roughly mirrors the common perception of luxury brands — makes with +a reputation for being expensive also tend to show up with high price-per-km +values. No surprises there. + +But this metric has a blind spot: **age**. Brands with almost no older cars on +the market look disproportionately expensive per km, simply because their +listings haven't had time to depreciate. BYD, for example, ranks just below +Ferrari and Rolls-Royce — not because a BYD is a luxury vehicle, but because the +average BYD listing is only **0.7 years** old, compared to the overall average +of **6.7 years**. Leapmotor is even more extreme at **0.5 years**. Give these +brands a few years to accumulate used inventory at higher mileages, and their +ratios will settle down considerably. + +### Depreciation Curves + +You'd expect the price-per-km ratio to fall as mileage increases — older, +high-mileage cars are cheaper, and the new-car premium fades fast. You'd also +expect the decline to be roughly exponential: a car loses a percentage of its +current value per additional kilometer, not a fixed euro amount. + +Both hold up in the data: + +{{/* dashboard on price vs mileage and price/km vs mileage */}} +{{< grafana url="https://gr.eliaskohout.de/public-dashboards/e999ce3c237b4cae95b3331331a26261" height="400" >}} + +The curves above show average prices over mileage for BMW, Volkswagen, and Fiat. +The brand-level differences are immediately visible — different starting points, +different values throughout the decay — but the overall shape is the same: steep +early depreciation that gradually flattens out. + + +* nur zum ende hin verschwimmen die Grenzen, 200k km kann hier als grobe grenze gesehen werden, ab der die daten etwas chaotischer werden +* das könnte auch daran liegen, dass es hier einfach weniger datenpunkte gibt und damit die durchschnittbrechnung schlechter wird + +* also lass uns genauer auf die verteilungen an diesem Ende der skala schauen + + +### The Survivors: Cars Beyond 250k km + + + + +{{/* + ============================================== + PLAN: Analysis chapters to write + ============================================== + + 1. Price vs. Mileage Relationship + - Scatter/heatmap of price vs. mileage across all listings + - Depreciation curves: how fast do different makes lose value? + - The "sweet spot": best mileage-to-price ratio by model + + 2. The Survivors: Cars Beyond 300k km + - Which makes/models appear most often at extreme mileage? + - Fuel type breakdown (diesel vs. petrol at high mileage) + - Average price of high-mileage cars — are they dirt cheap or still holding value? + + + ausfallrate abschätzen + + 4. Fuel & Drivetrain Trends + - Fuel type distribution (diesel/petrol/electric/hybrid/LPG) + - Price and mileage by fuel type + - Are EVs showing up in used markets yet? At what price? + + 5. Geography + - Listings by country and region (zip code clusters) + - Regional price differences for the same model + - Where are the cheap cars? + + ============================================== +*/}} + diff --git a/hugo/eliaskohout.de/hugo.toml b/hugo/eliaskohout.de/hugo.toml index 829e0d0..d260a53 100644 --- a/hugo/eliaskohout.de/hugo.toml +++ b/hugo/eliaskohout.de/hugo.toml @@ -16,3 +16,6 @@ title = 'Elias Kohout' [[params.links]] name = "[r]ezepte" url = "https://r.eliaskohout.de" + +[markup.goldmark.renderer] + unsafe = true diff --git a/hugo/eliaskohout.de/layouts/_default/list.html b/hugo/eliaskohout.de/layouts/_default/list.html index cb68a2a..8eed0d7 100644 --- a/hugo/eliaskohout.de/layouts/_default/list.html +++ b/hugo/eliaskohout.de/layouts/_default/list.html @@ -5,19 +5,28 @@

{{ .Title }}

- {{ range .Pages.ByDate.Reverse }} - - {{ with .Params.image }} - {{ $.Title }} - {{ end }} -

{{ .Title }}

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- {{ range .Params.tags }} - {{ . }} + {{ if .Pages }} + {{ range .Pages.ByDate.Reverse }} + + {{ with .Params.image }} + {{ $.Title }} {{ end }} -

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+ {{ range .Params.tags }} + {{ . }} + {{ end }} +

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{{ .Params.summary }}

+ + {{ end }} + {{ else }} +
+ 🚀 +

More projects coming soon

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I'm currently working on new things — stay tuned!

+ ... +
{{ end }}
diff --git a/hugo/eliaskohout.de/layouts/shortcodes/grafana.html b/hugo/eliaskohout.de/layouts/shortcodes/grafana.html new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f8231f0 --- /dev/null +++ b/hugo/eliaskohout.de/layouts/shortcodes/grafana.html @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +
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Built an interactive chat interface integrating lm-polygraph for -uncertainty estimation with an intuitive visualization layer.

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Translating probabilistic outputs into user-friendly visual indicators -while keeping the interface responsive.

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